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Post Number:#106  PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:34 pm 
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We in the US forget easy about what the rest of the world pays for fuel. But we're getting up there. That 2 litreprice break sounds pretty significant too. But you guys are a lot closer to some pretty good diesel technology. Like dieseldorg said, the US has pretty much killed the diesel engine - nothing sold here offers much advantage over gas.

I hadn't heard much specific about turbo results for the LD long term. Seems like a "mild" boost, maybe 5# or so would make sure all the fuel gets burned a/out strssing the engine much.

Well, we'll see what the future brings. I don't see this car chassis going more than a couple more years. I want/need some kind of similar vehicle and so far I just haven't seen _anything_ with reasonable mileage, not even the VW SUV. Toureg I think it's called and that's priced clear out of this world. So it looks like either and Astro or a Jeep might be as good a go as anything. IIRC they both claim about 15-19 stock but I think my sister gets about 12 on her 98 jeep. The trick w/the Jeep may be to find a 2WD and that might be pretty hard; the Astro has a lot more space anyway.

Dieseldorf, I just had a thought re> mpg. I previously considered messing w/the lockup on my tranny but never got there. You might want to look into that. There is an external line that controls the lockup which you could put a solenoid valve on. The problem I saw was knowing whether that fluid line was used for more than just controlling the lockup; IOW does the tranny need _some_ pressure in that line regardless of what state the lockup clutch is in - or can you just shut it off when you don't want thelockup (3rd gear on hills). Also I didn't persue it enough to figure out where to tap to get pressure to lock it in 2nd - again for long hills. However you may be more motivated than I... <g>

Rufus

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Post Number:#107  PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:04 pm 
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Rufus,
I have a 5-speed manual gasser tranny. 1st, 2nd, and 5th (overdrive) gears are much different that the original diesel MT.

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Post Number:#108  PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 9:32 am 
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> gasser MT ...

What I get for not boning up on your original thread! <g> I guess that means you're getting fairly close the thebest out of the engine. I remember you played around w/tire and rear end ratios but it's hard to imagine once you're in the ball park, w/a decent compromise drive ratio, how different shift points would make too much improvement; presumably you get familiar w/the vehicle and do your shifting at "best" points.

But maybe there's something to be gained. I read once the Europeans mostly accelerate fairly hard and shift up as soon as possible to highest gear, almost lugging, in order to get it into high as quick as possible and get the most mpg from whatever they're driving; sounded like a pretty broad generalization. But I think I read it in a discussion of available transmissions and how the the European verson were geared differently from the US, even for the same car and transmission. Don't remember what was different about the ratios, though.

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Post Number:#109  PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 9:27 am 
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Here is what I read in the News today.
Quote:
"Oil industry analysts Cameron Hanover have even warned that crude prices should be substantially lower -- below $35 and potentially as low as $10 a barrel based on the weak state of demand.
"Prices are near $75 instead because investors -- gargantuan investors -- are pricing oil more in terms of gold than in terms of the market's history, the euro, the dollar, or supply and demand," it said.
End quote.

That what I was saying for a long time. Enron type crooks make the oil price, not supply and demand.

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Post Number:#110  PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 3:55 pm 
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> supply & demand...

They control the supply, we provide the demand!

With your marbles in a vice you don't do much negotiating. Called corner-the-market. Called monopoly, only in this case, there's about 5-6 entities holding the strings - few enough for them all to agree on their best interest, though.

But it doesn't matter really in the medium term - oil's going to go out of reach in the next 15 years. I think we or at least our children better figure out how to travel w/out oil or we'll go back to being peasants - sold as part of the land cuz we can't move anywhere else.


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Post Number:#111  PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:17 pm 
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I've recently examined a thesis that has indicated a decade or more of price instability due to supply constraints within the refining sector. This is because the global financial crisis (GFC) has had a devastating impact on investment in refining infrastructure.

There appears to be still a lot of oil out there with ever increasingly expensive technology to extract, and there is going to be an ever burgeoning demand and this will see a steady increase in fuel costs [again] but this price increase trend will be inherently unstable due to the lack of current investment in long-term projects related to refining. Apparently it is steady as she goes on maintenance of existing, but installation of new capacity (unless already planned and paid for) has stalled along with expansion of existing. A lot of compounding factors within the financial sector also come into play.

Investment in large scale renewable biofuels infrastructure has stalled completely with the two-pronged impacts of cheaper fossil fuel and the GFC which has had same impact on installation and expansion plans.

Horse power in some quarters is going to be a literal term again it appears... :lol:

BTW, diesel prices here are fluctuating between NZD1.13 and 1.19 per litre and 1 USD = NZD1.38 :wink:

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Post Number:#112  PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:18 pm 
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I have read very little of this thread, therefore forgive me if i am way off base here.

What incentive do oil companies have to invest more money into refineries to increase production in order to lower the price of fuel at the pump?
Spend more to profit less? Is that good business for them?

Oil companies also want to keep projections of instability in the market going in order to justify the higher prices to prepare for what if's even though often nothing goes wrong.
It is the manipulation of the market in order to maintain or increase retail prices.

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Post Number:#113  PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:25 pm 
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dn29626 wrote:
What incentive do oil companies have to invest more money into refineries to increase production in order to lower the price of fuel at the pump?
Spend more to profit less? Is that good business for them?


Good question. I don't know the full answer but from what I understand, if one fuel company cannot supply x amount of fuel then the buyer will go to someone who can. It takes refining capacity to supply a market and to manipulate something like retail prices, you have to have power to supply at will.

It takes investors to invest and few if any corporates these days finance things off the account book, it is usually financed by debt and money to borrow is not there as readily as it was pre-GFC.

dn29626 wrote:
Oil companies also want to keep projections of instability in the market going in order to justify the higher prices to prepare for what if's even though often nothing goes wrong.
It is the manipulation of the market in order to maintain or increase retail prices.


I won't even pretend to know all the idiosyncrasies of oil markets but some things really stood out in the thesis I read. In the lead up to the GFC there was a huge level of increase in fuel costs. At the same time, supertankers were in short supply. Why? Because large monied speculators (hedge funds trading in oil futures were key to this) were chartering them, filling them and then parking them. This had the effect of removing two crucial things from the 'market'. Oil and the ability to transport it. This in turn caused oil to spike, and the charterer of the said supertankers then released their oil at a vastly inflated price to what it was purchased for (and the hedge funds made money too from buying and selling futures - double dipping). Oil companies were victims of this as in many cases, private charters of supertankers took out charters they normally utilised. This is just one such example of market manipulation and it had notinhing to do with oil companies and everything to do with wall street. The fact that profits increased for fuel companies was secondary to the fact that the market was being seriously manipulated by outsiders taking advantage of the current supply and demand trading mechanisms.

There is a lot more to oil markets and pricing stability than meets the eye. oil companies like stability because their shareholders demand it. They are answerable to their shareholders. If I was a shareholder in a fuel company, I would invest in a comapny likely to be able to supply at will, not supply at the wim of a limited infrastructure.

There is a lot written about this as post-mortum style articles on the oil pricing pre-GFC. Wall Street was caught with oil dribbling off their respective chins... :evil:

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Post Number:#114  PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:50 pm 
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dn29626 wrote:
I have read very little of this thread, therefore forgive me if i am way off base here.

What incentive do oil companies have to invest more money into refineries to increase production in order to lower the price of fuel at the pump?
Spend more to profit less? Is that good business for them?

Oil companies also want to keep projections of instability in the market going in order to justify the higher prices to prepare for what if's even though often nothing goes wrong.
It is the manipulation of the market in order to maintain or increase retail prices.


Good questions. I had a reply typed up but lost it so I will try to recall.

If oil company A cannot supply due to constraints in their refining process, company B will do so. If shareholder C does not get the return they want or sees weakness in the ability of Company A to supply the burgeoning markets of India and China, they will most likey invest in Company B etc. Simple market forces or supply and demand dictate that if you cannot supply volume for a commodity such as oil is someone else will step up to the plate.

It is the fits and starts of financial recovery that is going to stall this process.

If Company A thinks it can get a better interest rate on it's debt by waiting and Company B thinks the same thing, it will be a case of who blinks first etc. There is a lot more to it but this is a summary as I understand it. Increased refining capacity is going to be needed with the hugely growing demand from India and China. If the companies ignore the need to invest in their own ability to supply and this raises oil pricing to the levels seen pre-GFC, then this again will see money invested in alternative bio-fuel infrastructure, something that started to happen pre-GFC but is now no longer happening.

I dislike conspiracy theory and distrust economic theory.

Market manipulation can be undertaken by others as well as suppliers in the current oil trading infrastructure. There was a lot of speculation driving the pricing pre '08. I cannot even pretend to know all the details but there was a lot more to it than initially meets the eye. A lot of compounding influences, still be analysed today and written about.

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Post Number:#115  PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 3:06 am 
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[quote]Market manipulation can be undertaken by others as well as suppliers in the current oil trading infrastructure. There was a lot of speculation driving the pricing pre '08. I cannot even pretend to know all the details but there was a lot more to it than initially meets the eye. A lot of compounding influences, still be analysed today and written about.[quote]

I simplified the situation. Are we in general agreement?

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Post Number:#116  PostPosted: Fri Oct 08, 2010 8:27 pm 
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In the summer of '08 the oil price hit $145/barrel. Bush asked the Saudies to pump more. They replied that it was not taken off their hands as fast as they pumped. And then came the GFC and the price fell overnight to $27-28/barrel. So what happen to the demand? Vanished overnight?
No, it wasn't there in the first place. It was a big lie that Wallstreet was selling all over the globe. That was in the news here for weeks. Same with refining capacities. Some refineries actually closed here in the US due to over-capacities.

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Post Number:#117  PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 11:34 pm 
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There's a theory floating around that at the time crude prices fell the govt had opened the SPR. IIRC the reason presented at the time was delivery problems from the middle-east region although later they said that they did it under the 'guise' of hurricane(s) were causing refinery shortages. I don't remember the whole thing but that's the gist of it.

BTW, the WTI crude price is not a reliable indicator of crude price any more, Brent crude is now trading at a $14 dollar premium to WTI. Smells a lot like market manipulation to me.

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 Post subject: There you have it....
Post Number:#118  PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 9:08 pm 
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According to CBS News:
Quote:
While crude oil production in Libya, which provides 2 percent of the world's oil, has been disrupted - the world is still producing more oil than it uses every day.
So, why then are oil and gas prices soaring again?

Sean Cota of the Petroleum Marketers Association of America said "it's unbridled investment money that is dominating the market, to the point where supply and demand doesn't matter anymore."
Cota says pension and hedge funds have been pouring into the oil market, and bidding up the price. Last week, two-thirds of all oil traded was not sold by oil companies, but by investors.
"The total world energy supply is bought and sold everyday about eight times," Cota added.

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 Post subject: more on that
Post Number:#119  PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 10:46 pm 
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On Sunday, Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the kingdom cut its oil production by 800,000 barrels a day last month due to lack of global demand. It had previously boosted production to allay supply fears and help control prices in case of shortfalls linked to the lingering Libyan conflict.

Libya produced 1.3 million barrels a day prior to the conflict – a relative drop in the bucket compared with global oil production.

Nevertheless, speculative traders buying and selling oil contracts on world commodity markets have used the threat of on-going supply disruptions in Libya as justification for ratcheting up the price of crude. The logic goes that if Libyan oil supply remains off-line due to the conflict, that will mean less oil making its way to supply global markets, and likely price spikes.

However the Saudi announcement – backed by a chorus of OPEC countries – indicates there is no shortage of oil and no cause for alarm. The key oil producing countries instead argue there is an oversupply on world markets and plentiful stocks of crude.

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Post Number:#120  PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 2:46 am 
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I was out to San Bernardino today.
The price is a bit expensive for me... :oops:


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